Re: What after Year2000

["Al Barsa, Jr." <barsa2@xxxxxxx>]

At 11:00 PM 6/13/97 -0400, you wrote:
>
>
>Al,
>
>Good points and prognostications...  I'ld like to submit some addendums to
>your list:
>
>n+1:  The glut of programmers hitting the market will be somewhat
>alleviated by the fact that alot of current ongoing needs have been
>shelved or postponed until they could get a timeslice.  Look for the
>number of pgmrs available to max out 2001-2003.

Valid point.  However many IS departments will elect to continue to defer
non-critical projects, opposed to using marginal programmers.
>
>n+2:  The programming environment of 2002 will be substancially different
>than it is today.  GUI will be the name of the game and even though VRPG
>and JAVA may not be magnum hits now, "windows" and "user friendly" (for
>STUPID and LAZY users, jmho) will be the environment du jour...  IFF the
>400 survives, it will serve as a server environment with thin client
>(thanks for the good idea, Lou B.!) and not the box that we all migrated
>our S/38 and (that glorified PC with VSAM support, aka s/36) onto back
>several years ago.  Frankly, NT is driving this direction.

I think that you are giving NT too much credit here.  I predict that in
another release or two, IBM will give you ways to take your traditional
applications (e.g.: Developed on S/38 and possibly S/36) and with a modest
amount of transformation (e.g.: move them to ILE) enable them to be
graphical using Java.
>
>n+3:  You will be running NT on your desktops, if not on your main house
>system(s)/Server(s), or you may be seriousely considering it.

Yes for desktops, or at least Win'97 (no matter what year it comes out in).
 However I feel that Rochester will outpace Redmond for main systems/servers.
>
>n+4:  There will be a strong move of programmers to non-RPG'ish
>environments.....4GL's, etc....  $GL's will have to become more price
>friendly and generate code that can be modified and recompiles sans $gl
>software on a target box
>
Agreed on 4GLs, but there so much RPG legacy out there, don't count it out.
 Rochester's challenge is to teach the teachers (schools) that
OS/400/RPG/etc. is here.  If they don't, this will be called 'self destruct
mode'.


>n+5:  LEARN C NOW...and get NT certified NOW.
>
C is the Assembler of the 90's.  NT certification will be a dime a dozen.
OS/400 paid for my house and will pay for my kids education.  I have smart
kids and they will get into expensive colleges.  (After all, it is Father's
Day.)

>n+6:  There will be some struggling 400's still around for us oldies to
>retire programming legacy apps on...but not alot...

I wouldn't count the 400 out so easily.  Gartner reports that although 90+%
of 400 shops have NT running, less than 2% are using it for anything
mission critical.  Even IF Rochester does get the AS/400 word out, us
oldies will continue to be goodies.
>
>n+7:  in 2002, you will still be able to buy software/compilers, etc. for
>NT that's NOT TIERED PRICED BASED ON THE CPU!!!!  This tiered pricing has
>always been a pain in my a......
>
By 2002, you can do all development on the lowest price AS/400 sold with
the lowest tier price.  For that matter, todays model 40S is a very good
price performer today.  All of my compiles are done at the lowest possible
tier price available.

>n+8:  Al Barsa will still talk faster than the French can translate at
>Eurocommon.... 

It will continue to be my pleasure.

>n+9:  Winfax will STILL offer more functionality on the PC than FAX/400
>does on the 400.... :)

So IBM can't do everything perfectly.  However, when you call me for a TAA
fax today, I still can the fax from the middle of my RPG application.  I
didn't get my fat butt out of their chair, or even have to click on the
correct (or incorrect) icon.  My application did it, and did it properly.
BTW, when I updated the fax document, it was updated for everyone in the
company simultaneously.
>
>n+10:  common will still be debating the CUDS issue.... :) 
>
It will continue to be my pleasure.

>n+11:  Hillary will still be selling pork bellies...
>

It will continue to be my pleasure.

>Later dudes and dudettes!
>
>
>Don in DC


Al in NY



Al Barsa, Jr. - Account for Midrange-L
Barsa Consulting, LLC.  
400 > 390

Phone:  914-251-9400
Fax:    914-251-9406





Private mail should be sent to barsa@ibm.net
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