Well, I know I spend too much time on a soap box but I cannot resist.

    First, I think the lesson of OS/2 should be learned by the AS/400
community. When I read, "dropped it without a fight" that sure got me going.

    IBM fought that fight for a long time. I doubt that they would pick that
banner up again. I'm sure all this is old knowledge, but for the sake of
those who forgot, OS/2 was a joint venture between Microsoft and IBM.
Microsoft dumped in for the opportunity to be the sole provider of Windows.
IBM, thinking that Windows was crap while OS/2 was a real operating system
felt that this was the way the market would go.
    I must have read ten thousand emails from people who cried about "it's
the marketing" with OS/2. About as many as I see crying about the marketing
of the AS/400. What bunk.
    The three biggest months in OS/2's life, when it sold about 1,000,000
copies per month, had nothing to do with advertising. It was the three
months following the release of Windows 95. People had waited since
"Chicago" was announced (in the fall of '91, to be delivered 1st quarter
'92) until 3rd quarter '95 for Windows next release. When it got there, it
was no better than any other Microsoft product, bloated and buggy. So OS/2's
sales took off. But three months later, when IBM was inspired to dump 500
million dollars into promoting the OS/2 project, the show was over. IBM was
advertising everywhere. People whined and cried that the ads weren't enough,
they weren't this, they weren't that. But the problem was the applications
hitting the market were all 32bit Windows applications. People were buying
those applications, and they couldn't run them on OS/2.
    What does that have to do with the AS/400? You tell me.
    The AS/400 had (and maybe still has) more applications available for it
than any other server running. It is bulletproof and versatile. It's cost of
ownership is lower than any of its competition. But if what is selling is
the flashy, GUI apps, then that is where the market is going.
    The death of the AS/400 is being heralded by those who depend on it
most. Java is more than just the "flavor of the month" for the AS/400, it is
the chance for the machine to survive in the marketplace.
    AS/400 shops won't do anything new! IBM has tried everything under the
sun to save this machine, but AS/400 shops are killing it. There are a host
of VisualAge products, all of which will develop GUI applications to access
data on AS/400s, are they in use? When you pick up WAS and develop a website
using your 400, you know you are in the minority for web site development,
but how much in the minority are you for AS/400 development? How much of the
AS/400 community is willing to develop using new tools and new techniques?
    For gosh sakes, guys, we've been discussing sites that still run S/36
code!
    Bob still thinks of the AS/400 as a text based green screen machine.
That is what is killing it. To many people it is just a dinosaur. The TCP/IP
connection I can create to the AS/400 to run my GUI Java application,
accessing 400 based files, is just as valid as his twinax based one. Just
the same as it is when I access Unix based files instead of Telneting onto
their servers and run text based apps. But if we, as AS/400 professionals,
can't get past thinking of AS/400s as green screen machines, then that is
all they will be in a marketplace that doesn't want those any more.
    But looking at OS/2, you'll see that IBM doesn't abandon its customers
quickly. OS/2 is still supported. I am sure that IBM simply cut back in that
area to match the income model so that it was still making money, however
slight. So there might be 2 guys patching OS/2 bugs or something. Well, when
the AS/400 costs money instead of making it, IBM philanthropy won't include
dumping money into a dead machine so you and I can still have jobs. They
will cut it back until it makes money. Their fee bases support will be
enough to pay the last 2 guys patching OS/400 and the one or two engineers
working on the hardware.
    The bottom line is that the AS/400 depends on the AS/400 development
community. Just as Windows depends on the Windows development community.
What Microsoft showed us and IBM apparently won't listen to, is that the OS
maker needs to control the companies developing for the OS. Microsoft has
used force to push developers from one platform to the next. IBM still
counts on people to move to the best technical solution. We, as the
developers, define what the AS/400 is. We build its perception in the
marketplace.
    So remember that next time YOU are deciding what your next AS/400
application is going to look like.

Chris Rehm
javadisciple@earthlink.net
If you believe that the best technology wins the
marketplace, you haven't been paying attention.


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