RE: No jobs in sight yet -- MIDRANGE-NONTECH


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 |  Why?  Because Ghawar is Dying.
OK - I'll bite.  Who or what is "Ghawar"???
 |
 |  Building a Passive solar house in the country, with PV, Wind
 |  and starting a VERY big organic garden.
This I think is a good idea.  But where?  When it hits the fan what do you
think the folks in the city are going to do?  How far from a city can you
be?  After all programming is a pretty "urban" type of job, it seems to me
Tom Daly
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tom

Ghawar ?

Here's what's that about.
http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html

I even bought some bumper stickers

Coincidently ,  I happened to exchange emails with the writer of the
article just yesterday.
( I have included my email to him and his response below)

Your questions to me are VERY valid.

How Far?  -  Not Far enough  (or as my daughter said, "Farther than someone
can walk")

... whattheygonnado ?  -  My answer is 'When the Lights go off,  You are in
the dark ages"
(Does that give you a clue?)


John
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Greetings

In reference to Ghawar Is Dying  http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html
I was wondering how much feedback you have received because of this
article?  I know I personally have emailed the link to at least a hundred
people
I know.

It is interesting that Ghawar in fact may be peaking at this moment.
 http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/powers/2003/0629.htm

So did you receive much attention when this article ran?

It's all down hill from here boys.

Oh,   Take a look at this neat site , very pretty

http://www.wolfatthedoor.org.uk

John Carr
-------------------------------------------
Wow!

   First off, thanks for the link to "Wolf At the Door"! I bookmarked
it and plan to spend some time going through it page by page. Good find
there! I wrote "Ghawar is Dying" a couple of years ago (I wish they had
posted some kind of date with it.), and yes, it really has gotten some
response- and still does, obviously. I've recieved emails from all over
North America and Europe, some sounding curious, others frightened and a
few just plain hostile. The stangest part, though, is how so few people
understand that it was a work of fiction, set in the future. Almost
everyone reads it as historical fact. (And maybe it really is?) All in
all, it seems to be my most famous work to date. (Kinda sad, considering
how much else I've written.) The hosting web site (New Colonist) even
went ahead and made those bumper stickers I had envisioned in the
article!
   As for the Ghawar itself, it seems that it was at least reaching its
peak as I wrote that article- if not several years before. One oil
industry analyst in France complained to me last year that they couldn't
find any published production figures for the Ghawar after 1997- a good
sign that it was all bad news after that. It's fairly common knowledge
that major portions of the Ghawar are filling with water, but the exact
extent of the intrusion is understandably not public knowledge. As I
wrote that article, I thought perhaps Ghawar would be the last great oil
field to go dry. Now I see it may be the first, as it's also about the
oldest. If, as many analysts say, oil production mirrors discover, but
40 years later, then yes, the Ghawar should have passed its peak of
production back in the 1990's. But it will take an act of Allah for the
Saudis to admit it.
   As you've read elsewhere, the Saudis really have little to show for
all of their "oil wealth". One thing they do have is a massive national
debt, the result of huge World Bank loans based on future oil production
as collateral! YIPE! Now, if they really DON'T have all the oil they
said they had to get those loans- and they don't- how are they going to
repay the loans as the Ghawar- and their other smaller oil fields, go
dry? It's going to get very, very ugly for the Saudis- and may do so
very quickly and with little warning (for the rest of us). If they
default on their loans and have to curtail their expansive social
services, the common Saudis will revolt and ovethrow the House of Saud.
Naturally, as in any revolution, production will grind to a quick halt-
and the production facilites could possibly be sabatoged. No more Saudi
oil. Do keep in mind that the Saudis have been paying off Islamic
extremists for years to keep them from trashing the country. With out
that blackmail money,  they're an open target- and an obvious one for
allowing the US to come in.
   Now, in truth, the US doesn't get all that much oil from the Middle
East. Maybe 10%? We could deal with that shortage in a reasonable, calm
and rational manner- if it didn't get blown all out of proportion by the
media and turned into some big national crisis- which it probably will.
Leave it to Fox, I'm sure. (Funny how no one mentioned the problems in
Venezuela- and that's where we really get most of our imported oil.) So
if the Saudis tank and the nightly news goes nuts, we may end up facing
a contrived gas crisis just as real as any real one, thanks to panic
buying, price gouging and general hysteria. House of Cards meets The
Domino Effect.
   The bottom line:

Keep your bikes tires pumped!

Chip
-----------------
and this from the NewColonist site

----------


Ghawar was our most-read page for two months--thank you.  It apparently
ended up in several investment sites, so the excellent Powers article
you forwarded was particularly interesting.

Rick