RE: I should have bought a lottery tickets!

["McCallion, Martin" <martin.mccallion@xxxxxxxxx>]

Kenneth E. Graap wrote:

> IBM responds quickly though, replaces the
> power supply and
> tries to make me feel better by saying that the odds of this
> happening again
> in our lifetime is millions to one!!!!   Yea right ...
> millions to one ....

Like so many people, they clearly don't understand probability.  The
odds of it happing again in your lifetime are exactly the same as the
odds of it happening once in your lifetime.  In other words, the fact
that it's already happened doesn't change the likelihood of it happening
again.  In sheer probability terms, that is: if there's something in
your environment that caused it then it may be even more likely to
happen again. ;-)

Cheers,

Martin.

--
Martin McCallion
Senior Technical Consultant
Work:  martin.mccallion@misys.com
Home: martin.mccallion@ukonline.co.uk
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